Race To The Finish?

Overall, Dems did pretty well in the Deep South in '08: they picked up a solid GOP seat in AL and safely held onto four others in very difficult terrain. LA, though, was a glaring exception with Don Cazayoux's (D-LA 04) loss. Will issues there continue to plague Dems in the LA-04 general on 12/6?

-- By all accounts, Caddo Parish DA Paul Carmouche (D) is the frontrunner, and his latest poll confirms that. But while Carmouche defeated African-American ret. Army Col. Willie Banks (D) handily in the 11/4 primary, he'll need to quiet any lingering resentment in the black community if he's going to win on 12/6. Race issues have already cost Cazayoux, as a third-party bid by African-American Dem state Rep. Michael Jackson (I) took more votes than state Sen. Bill Cassidy's (R) winning margin.

-- State Sen. Lydia Jackson (D), who had considered a third-party bid in LA-04, endorsed Banks in the runoff. She, along with LA-06's Jackson, were angry that Dems appeared to favor white candidates over African-Americans in Dem primaries where blacks make up a large voting bloc.

-- Carmouche is ahead in the polls, but with a low-turnout affair in 12/08, he'll need every African-American Dem motivated to head to the ballot box in this GOP-leaning CD. Any lingering bad feelings will jeopardize a pickup that right now looks tantalizingly close for Dems.