All Quiet On The Western PA Front

Dems have been taking up all of the oxygen in PA-12, but the spotlight will shift toward GOPers tonight, as they'll select a nominee.

-- But compared to the fracas that led up to the nomination of ex-Murtha staffer Mark Critz (D), the GOP battle has been extremely tame. And that is unexpected, as a bitter fight between businessman Tim Burns (R) and '08 nominee William Russell (R) looked to be brewing early. That hasn't panned out.

-- For their part, GOPers believe Burns has the edge among GOP delegates tonight. If he wins, he has promised to put some of his own funds into the race. So far, he's put $75K of his own cash in, but he'll drop a much bigger number if he's going to make a dent in the special.

-- Meanwhile, it'd be a mistake to believe that the quiet race is a sign of things to come. Even if he loses the special nod to Burns, Russell has the name ID (and $200K+ CoH) to make a real push for the primary nod. That contest will be decided on 5/18, the same day as the special election, meaning Russell could inflict real damage on the GOP's chances in the all-important special.

-- Still, despite the fact that GOPers need a win here in the worst way, few have high hopes. They say the CD's Dem registration advantage, and the fact that a hotly contested GOV primary will also take place on 5/18, will likely overcome the GOP trends in the CD.