A Taxing Dilemma

The WH's expected decision to allow Bush tax cuts on the wealthy to expire is causing a tricky dilemma for Dem Congressional cands, particularly those in affluent, suburban areas - most of which swung decisively for Obama in '08.

-- It's clear the WH faces a looming problem when frosh Rep. Gerry Connolly (D-VA 11) is openly breaking with Obama on taxes, since he's from a solidly Obama CD and has been a reliable party vote in the past. He's far from the most vulnerable House Dem, but in a wave, could easily find himself in trouble in his suburban DC seat, one of the wealthiest in the country.

-- If Dems lose support with affluent suburban voters - a major part of Obama's base in '08 - it's hard to see how they can hold the House. There are at least a dozen races up for grabs in these types of seats. Look to see how Dems like Adler (NJ 03), Kosmas (FL 24), McMahon (NY 13), P. Murphy (PA 08), Kilroy (OH 15), and Mitchell (AZ 05) position themselves. Most have been reliable supporters of the WH, and politically, could use some distance heading into the midterms.

-- Already at least 4 Dem senators have expressed concerns with letting the cuts lapse, including Bayh. (What say you, Brad Ellsworth?). And the key battleground SEN seats - CA, CO, DE, FL, NH, PA - are filled with wealthy Dem-leaning suburban voters that could well tip the elections. You can bet Fiorina, Toomey, Rubio will be hammering an anti-tax message come the fall.

-- Dems will be trying to find their populist voice, attacking GOP as being beholden to the upper class. And if Obama's wealthy supporters take one for the team, the WH will have dodged a bullet. But if they follow the path of Wall Street Dem donors and turn fickle, it would be another blow for a party that can't afford much more.