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From The Hotline for Thursday, March 11, 2010

Is Two A Trend?

Thursday, March 11, 2010


Two days after a poll showed Charlie Crist trailing Marco Rubio in the FL SEN GOP primary by 32 pts, a new survey shows Rubio ahead by 36 pts. Note: Both are robo polls, though one was done by a Dem firm (PPP) and the other by a GOP-leaning firm (Insider/Advantage). Regardless of whether we believe the margin is indeed this big, we do believe Crist is not only far behind Rubio but looks increasingly unlikely to be able to bridge that gap.

-- After sitting on the sidelines for much of '09, Crist has gone on the offensive. But he's yet to get off a clean shot. The AmEx scandal gave Crist the opening he needed to undercut Rubio's fiscal conservative cred. Instead, his bizarre "back waxing" comment only turned it into a joke.

-- Meanwhile, Rubio's penchant for earmarks would give another GOP opponent some great fodder for attack. But Crist, as the NYT outlined last weekend, will be stuck defending himself against reports that his efforts to save the Everglades benefited big sugar more than FL taxpayers.

-- With almost 6 mos. until the primary and lots of money in the bank, Crist's only way back is to make Rubio out to be even more unpopular than he is. His problem, however, is that Crist is not only a poor messenger but he's also not a credible one either. Unless he gets some help by outside groups, or a serious stumble by what has been a very disciplined Rubio camp, it's hard to believe he'll ever catch him.

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